Future energy system development depends on past learning opportunities
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2016
© 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Learning curves pervade all levels of industry and suggest deployment programs to buy down the cost of presently too expensive environment-friendly technologies. However, the legitimate role of learning curves in a low-carbon strategy depends on the validity of extrapolations and forecasts of the curves. Moving toward a technology-led strategy for a low-carbon energy system requires understanding of the learning mechanisms and their stability. The first part of this review provides examples of pervasive learning and a brief literature survey of recent learning curve measurements for energy technologies and the use of learning curves for scenario and policy analysis. The second part reviews how authors from two different perspectives understand the learning curves and come to different conclusions about their stability and legitimate role in scenario analysis and policy making.