Modelling the Future: System Dynamics in the Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Care Pathway
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2015

Incidence rates for cutaneous malignant melanoma are increasing worldwide. Estimates of the future number of melanoma cases are important for strategic planning of the care pathway. The aim of this study was to use system dynamics modelling to evaluate the long;term effects of changes in incidence, population growth and preventive interventions. Historical data on invasive melanoma cases in Western Sweden from 1990 to 2006 were obtained. Using computer simulation software, a model estimating the accumulated number of melanoma cases for 2014 to 2023 was developed. Five future scena; rios were designed: stable incidence, business;as;usual, 25% reduced patient’s delay, 50% reduced doctor’s de; lay, and a combination of the last two, called improved overall secondary prevention. After 10 years, improved overall secondary prevention would have resulted in a 42% decrease in melanomas > 4 mm and a 10% increase in melanomas 1 mm, compared with business;as;usu; al. System dynamics is a valuable tool, which can help policymakers choose the preventive interventions with the greatest impact.

Författare

Magdalena Claeson

Göteborgs universitet

Stefan Hallberg

Paul Holmström

Chalmers, Teknikens ekonomi och organisation, Teknik och samhälle

Arne Rosen

Göteborgs universitet

Helena Gonzalez

Göteborgs universitet

John Paoli

Göteborgs universitet

Acta Dermato-Venereologica

0001-5555 (ISSN) 1651-2057 (eISSN)

Vol. 96 2

Ämneskategorier

Annan teknik

Klinisk medicin

Styrkeområden

Livsvetenskaper och teknik

Mer information

Skapat

2017-10-07