Electrification potential of the car – estimate from a mid-size Swedish town

Paper in proceeding, 2010

An electrification of vehicles can contribute to increased energy efficiency and decreased air pollution in urban environments. The high vehicle costs involved, especially for the batteries, means that careful considerations of the options are needed. We have investigated the optimal design and potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) under various viability conditions with the help of a data set for individual vehicle movements from a mid-size Swedish town. In the estimates each car is equipped with a battery cost-optimized in size with respect to the individual car movement pattern and charging options expressed as the minimum break time interval required for considering recharging. The resulting optimal battery size is relatively small for lower economic viability, but increases with raised charging options. For high economic competitiveness the optimal sizes are larger but decreasing with better recharging possibilities. The results point to a PHEV design strategy with a small battery in an introductory phase and then an increased size when the economic competitiveness is further enhanced. Still the resulting optimal battery size is highly dependent on the specific movement pattern of the individual car. It is now urgent for the continued development, planning, and estimates of proliferation and impact of electrified vehicles that further statistical data, today mostly lacking, for the movement patterns of individual vehicles in various regions are assembled and utilized.