Risk Assessment Model Applied on Building Physics: Statistical Data Acquisition and Stochastic Modeling of Indoor Moisture Supply in Swedish Multi-family Dwellings

Report, 2010

Though it is highly appreciated and asked for by the practitioners there is a lack of tools to perform proper risk assessment and risk management procedures in the area of building physics. Many of the influential variables, such as outdoor temperature and indoor moisture supply, have stochastic variations, thus a general approach for risk assessment is complicated. The aim of this study is to define risk concepts in building physics and develop a risk assessment model to be used in the field. The study is based on hazard identification tools used in process industry, such as What-if, HAZOP, FMEA and VMEA. The tools are compared and used in the modeling process which leads to identification of noise factors during design, construction and service life. A literature survey is conducted in order to find statistical input data that should be used in the applicability study, based on stochastic simulations and air flow path modeling in CONTAM. By combining the hazards and safeguards in a scenario, together with Monte Carlo simulations, gives results with a distribution, dependent on the variability of the noise factors. The applicability study shows good correspondence with measurements performed on the indoor moisture supply in Swedish multi-family dwellings. Risk and safe scenarios are defined by comparing the result of the scenario with an allowed level of consequences. By implementing risk management into building physics design, it is possible to indentify critical points to avoid extra unwanted costs. In addition, risks concerning indoor climate, health and durability are clarified.