A method for risk analysis of ship collisions with stationary infrastructure using AIS data and a ship manoeuvring simulator
Journal article, 2021

The study presents a methodology that uses AIS data and a ship manoeuvring simulator to simulate and analyse marine traffic schemes with regard to risks for accidents. An event identification method is presented, which is needed for the accident scenario part of the methodology. This is based on AIS data, where the Great Belt VTS area was used to verify the methodology. Three events that could result in ship-bridge allisions were modelled and simulated in the simulator: drifting ship, sharp turning ship and miss of turning point. The Monte Carlo method was used to perform large number of simulator runs, including a parameter sensitivity analysis. The probability of a ship allision against the Great Belt Bridge was calculated to be 0.007. Analysis of the ship-bridge allision cases was shown to be dominated by the event drifting ship. This event has a relatively low kinetic energy at the impact, and the expected allision energy for a 1,000-year allision corresponds to a 178 m tanker with 57,870 DWT and ship speed 14.6 knots. Finally, this study presents a mitigation analysis, which shows how the probability of allisions can be reduced by reducing the ship speed or altering the traffic separation scheme.

Allision energy

AIS analysis

Event identification

Ship-bridge allision

Ship grounding

Ship manoeuvring simulator


Axel Hörteborn

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Marine Technology

SSPA Sweden AB

Jonas Ringsberg

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Marine Technology

Ocean Engineering

0029-8018 (ISSN)

Vol. 235 1 109396

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Innovation and entrepreneurship

Areas of Advance


Subject Categories

Infrastructure Engineering

Vehicle Engineering

Probability Theory and Statistics


Basic sciences



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