Risk Assessment and Decision Support

Paper in proceeding, 2012

Typically, oil production activities contain many hazardous scenarios which could cause catastrophic disasters such as loss of asset, human fatalities or injuries and environmental pollutions. Essence of designing a safe process plant and delivering sustainable performance makes an efficient risk management plan necessary for promoting safety in hazardous industries such as oil production. Risk management activities including hazard identification and risk assessment support decision makers to manage the relevant risks and take appropriate actions to reduce the critical risks levels and contribute sustainable development. In spite of abundant number of tools, techniques and methodologies to apply risk management, there are still some difficulties to address uncertainties associated with decision making during different phases of a project life cycle. Furthermore, in most decision making models, there isn't a clear distinguish between the key components of risk management process e.g. risk, uncertainty, hazard, and feeling threat. The aim of this paper is an attempt to present an efficient model to provide an appropriate decision making approach under the uncertain situation. An oil field development plant is selected as a case study to apply the presented model and assess related risks and uncertainties during the basic design phase of the project in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the model. Three main categories are identified as the major causes of hazard situations in the oil field development plant which are technical causes, organizational causes, and political issues. The required considerations and appropriate actions to reduce the level of risks levels as a result of identified variables have been analyzed for the selected possible hazardous scenarios.