How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?
Review article, 2013
Feeding 9-10billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1)) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100US$ tCO(2)-eq. yr(-1)), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.
CARBON
mitigation
ENERGY
ecosystem services
FREE-MARKET APPROACH
climate
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
food security
GHG
SOIL
BIOENERGY
GLOBAL AGRICULTURE
BIODIVERSITY
agriculture
AFOLU
CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION
WATER MANAGEMENT
forestry
Author
P. Smith
University of Aberdeen
H. Haberl
Alpen-Adria Universitaet (AAU)
A. Popp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
K. H. Erb
Alpen-Adria Universitaet (AAU)
C. Lauk
Alpen-Adria Universitaet (AAU)
R. Harper
Murdoch University
F. N. Tubiello
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
A. D. Pinto
University of Brasilia
M. Jafari
Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Tehran
S. Sohi
University of Edinburgh
O. Masera
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
H. Bottcher
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Göran Berndes
Chalmers, Energy and Environment, Physical Resource Theory
M. Bustamante
University of Brasilia
H. Ahammad
Australian Government
H. Clark
AgResearch Lincoln
H. M. Dong
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
E. A. Elsiddig
Khartoum University
C. Mbow
World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
N. H. Ravindranath
Indian Institute of Science
C. W. Rice
Kansas State University
C. Robledo-Abad
Helvetas Swiss Intercooperation
Institute for Environmental Decisions
A. Romanovskaya
Institute of Global Climate and Ecology
F. Sperling
African Development Bank Tunis
M. Herrero
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
International Livestock Research Institute Nairobi
J. I. House
University of Bristol
S. Rose
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
Global Change Biology
1354-1013 (ISSN) 1365-2486 (eISSN)
Vol. 19 8 2285-2302Subject Categories
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
DOI
10.1111/gcb.12160