Probabilities of thermal ice pressures in five Swedish lakes

Other conference contribution, 1978

For five Swedish lakes the recurrence intervals and magnitudes of ice pressure caused by thermal expansion has been estimated. A numerical model has been developed that calculates the the thermal pressure in an ice cover for observed ice and snow cover characteristicsand observed weather. Maxima of the calculated pressure that exceed 50 kN/m are listed for each lake, and annual-maximum series and peaks-over-threashold series are formed for the lakes. Three types of distributions are fitted to the annual-maximum series and one type to the peaks-over-threshold series. Reasonable esitmates of thexpected pressures of teh rturn periods, 100, 500 and 1000 years are for the northernmost lake Torne Träsk (68,3 deg N, 19,5 deg E) 507, 550 and 569 kN/m and for the southermost lake Vidöstern (57,1 deg N, 14,0 deg E) 330, 380 and 569 kN/m. The number of years varied between 12 and 16.