Effects of low-carbon energy adoption on airborne particulate matter concentrations with feedbacks to future climate over California
Journal article, 2020

California plans to reduce emissions of long‐lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short‐lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrations under a low‐carbon energy (GHG‐Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California. Simulations were carried out using the source‐oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model with 12 km spatial resolution for the year 2054. The avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG‐step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over land compared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest. Top of atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m‐2, surface temperature warmed by 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG‐Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG‐Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level. As an order‐of‐magnitude comparison, the long‐term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5 – RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K. The effects of long‐lived climate pollutants such as CO2 are much stronger than the effects of short‐lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.

MARKAL

climate change

source-oriented

CA-TIMES

SLCP

LLCP

Author

Anikender Kumar

University of California

Christina Zapata

University of California

Sonia Yeh

Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory

Christopher Yang

University of California

Joan M. Ogden

University of California

Hsiang-He Lee

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

University of California

Shu Hua Chen

University of California

Michael Kleeman

University of California

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

2169897X (ISSN) 21698996 (eISSN)

Vol. 125 16 e2020JD032636

Subject Categories (SSIF 2011)

Energy Engineering

Astronomy, Astrophysics and Cosmology

Other Environmental Engineering

Geophysics

Energy Systems

Fusion, Plasma and Space Physics

Areas of Advance

Energy

DOI

10.1029/2020JD032636

Related datasets

Effects of low-carbon energy adoption on airborne particulate matter concentrations with feedbacks to future climate over California [dataset]

DOI: 10.25338/b8nk7w

More information

Latest update

6/23/2025