Frequency quality in the nordic system 2040

Paper in proceeding, 2020

This paper proposes a method to estimate the total system kinetic energy and the corresponding frequency quality in the Nordic power system in 2040, based on different scenarios from the TSO utilizing estimated production data. The inertia estimation showed a lowered kinetic energy from an average of 223 GWs in 2019 to 175 GWs for 2040. In this paper an improved grid inverse is proposed to model the frequency control dynamics, where the frequency variation outside the normal band 50±0.1 Hz for 2040 was estimated. The number of events for the hour evaluated increased from 0.4% in 2019 to 1.1-5.0% in 2040 depending on distinct weather years, with an average of 2.8%. This indicates that the events outside the normal frequency band increase considerably for lower inertia conditions, suggesting a worsened frequency quality for 2040.