Assessing the impacts of climate change on the german building stock

Paper in proceeding, 2019

This study investigates the impacts of future climate uncertainties in the new generation of future climate data sets according to AR5(5thassessment report of IPCC) on simulating the energy performance of buildings by studying the building stock in Germany (Potsdam). This work is based on two data bases, namely 'Tabula web tool- European building' and 'EPISCOP'. Software IDA ICE was used to make comprehensive energy simulation of buildings. Four different climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used in the assessment. Simulations run for three 30-year periods between 2010 to 2099. Effects of uncertainties induced by RCPs are thoroughly investigated for long time period. Through the comparison of energy simulation results, it is found that due to climate change, heating demand will decrease, however, cooling demand will increase. According to the results, for the second 30-yearperiod, the heating demand decreases by 7% and cooling demand increases by 16%, compared to the first 30-year period. By comparing the distribution of the data sets, it is also found that the uncertainty caused by the climate model has an estimated impact on the future heating (cooling) demand greater than the uncertainty caused by the time period. The change in heating demand due to climate change and uncertainty is relatively low and very large for cooling demand.