Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most?
Journal article, 2023
We propose a new method for estimating how much decisions under monadic uncertainty matter. The method is generic and suitable for measuring responsibility in finite horizon sequential decision processes. It fulfills “fairness” requirements and three natural conditions for responsibility measures: agency, avoidance and causal relevance. We apply the method to study how much decisions matter in a stylized greenhouse gas emissions process in which a decision maker repeatedly faces two options: start a “green” transition to a decarbonized society or further delay such a transition. We account for the fact that climate decisions are rarely implemented with certainty and that their consequences on the climate and on the global economy are uncertain. We discover that a “moral” approach towards decision making — doing the right thing even though the probability of success becomes increasingly small — is rational over a wide range of uncertainties.
Uncertainty
GHG emissions processes
Climate policy
Verified decision making
Responsibility measures
Author
Nicola Botta
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Chalmers, Computer Science and Engineering (Chalmers), Functional Programming
Nuria Brede
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
University of Potsdam
Michel Crucifix
Universite catholique de Louvain
Cezar Ionescu
Deggendorf Institute of Technology
Patrik Jansson
Chalmers, Computer Science and Engineering (Chalmers), Functional Programming
Zheng Li
Arima
Northeastern University
Marina Martínez
Universite catholique de Louvain
Tim Richter
University of Potsdam
Environmental Modeling and Assessment
1420-2026 (ISSN) 1573-2967 (eISSN)
Vol. 28 3 337-365Subject Categories
Philosophy
Medical Ethics
Other Environmental Engineering
DOI
10.1007/s10666-022-09867-w