Excess mortality and the effect of the Covid-19 vaccines: Update on the European data

Report, 2023

Several months have elapsed since we wrote a paper investigating the relationship between all-cause excess mortality (EM) and Covid vaccination rates across 28 EU/EES countries, using data from both Eurostat and Our World in Data (OWID). As 2023 draws to a close, we now have a further 4 months of
Eurostat data and a further 5-6 months of OWID data and, given the urgency of the subject matter, think it is time for an update. This paper contains updated versions of all the relevant tables and figures from the preprint, along with short comments. The bottom line is that the pattern that has been in place since April 2022, with EM and vaccination rates positively correlated across the EU/EES region, remains firmly in place. If current trends persist, then the aggregate correlation between the two, for the pandemic era as a whole (i.e.: since March 2020), will turn positive some time during 2024. This assertion applies to the raw EM data, as measured either by Eurostat or OWID. It remains the case that if we instead measure EM using the OWID model which projects mortality out from the baseline period, then the picture is shifted somewhat in favour of the vaccines, though the trend is the same. In particular, the \emph{shift} in the correlation between EM and vaccination rates from the period before to that after the vaccine rollout continues to grow, no matter how we measure EM. In fact, for the raw EM data, the aggregate correlation in the post-rollout period has now turned positive.