Coupling an integrated assessment model with an input–output database

Journal article, 2024

MESSAGE is an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) useful for developing anthropogenic climate change scenarios and the evaluation of long-term energy policies. MESSAGE is constrained by its internal scenario generator, which project energy commodity demand inputs based only on population and GDP growth assumptions; the lack of sectoral and supply-chain details prevents modeling impacts from develpoments in non-energy sectors. Here we link MESSAGEix-Australia, a national-level MESSAGE IAM variant, to an input-output scenario builder to generate future energy commodity demands. The coupled IO_IAM framework then captures indirect energy implications of various socio-economic scenarios. Two scenarios were used to demonstrate this capability: first on the policy-based decarbonisation pathways for Australia, and second on the adoption of self-healing roads. This study showcases that a link between IO and IAM methods provides an opportunity for bringing together the strengths of the two approaches for assessing a wide range of sustainability questions.