Energy infrastructures for low-carbon-emitting industries

Doctoral thesis, 2024

The transition from a fossil-based to a renewable, low-carbon industrial system relies heavily on the parallel deployment of infrastructures and industrial developments. This thesis studies the linkages between the implementation of emissions reductions technologies (electrification, carbon capture and storage, and biomass use) at industrial sites and the required energy infrastructures. Within the scope of this thesis, optimization models, based on supply chain cost-minimization and CO2 emissions-minimization, are developed and applied to study the deployment of mitigation technologies and energy infrastructures. These models are applied alongside case studies and scenario analysis to assess the transition of industry and its associated energy infrastructures to low CO2 operation. The thesis highlights that the deployment of energy infrastructures can be a limiting factor in the transition of industry.

The results confirm that reducing permitting times and expanding the capacity to build up grid infrastructure in parallel with the electrification technology are crucial measures to meet climate targets. Poor conditions for electrification, in terms of long permitting times and low grid expansion capacity, may delay the electrification of Swedish industry by up to 15 years.

In the studied system, the costs for CO2 separation and liquefaction make up ~65% of the costs for CO2 capture and transport systems (albeit excluding the cost for final storage), rendering the mitigation option sensitive to CO2 capture investments and technology performance. As CO2 capture gives a high added cost for industrial operators, implementation is highly dependent upon incentives, and the modeled deployment in different sectors is sensitive to the incentive scheme applied. For example, carbon pricing mechanisms for fossil CO2 and mechanisms that motivate capture of biogenic CO2 result in different sectors targeted for capture when implemented in conjunction as opposed to separately. This highlights the importance of clear, long-term policies to create incentives for site operators to invest in mitigation technologies.

Future industrial biomass demands are likely to exceed the logging residue supply potential on a national level, and even more so in high-demand regions. The cost of logging residue supply is highly sensitive to the transport distance when utilizing current transportation modes. However, cost-effective long-distance transportation chains can connect high-demand and high-supply regions at relatively low cost increases compared to supplying logging residues regionally.