Through energy droughts: Hydropower's ability to sustain a high output
Journal article, 2025

Previous research has highlighted concerns about week-long energy droughts in renewables-based energy systems. Reservoir hydropower could offer a viable solution to mitigate such energy shortfalls. However, current energy systems models often oversimplify hydropower by assuming it can operate continuously at maximum output. This study investigates the ability of reservoir hydropower to sustain a high output and thereby mitigate energy droughts. In contrast to most energy system models, the hydropower model used in this study includes cascading, head dependency, turbine efficiency curves and environmental constraints. We estimate that Swedish hydropower can sustain between 77% and 96% of its installed capacity for one week, with the higher end of this range achievable during spring. This range in sustained output is equivalent to about 3 GW, or about 20% of average demand in Sweden, which underscores the importance of understanding the operational limitations of hydropower. Our findings indicate that river bottlenecks, primarily due to regulations on maximum flows, are the main factor limiting hydropower's ability to sustain higher outputs. With the upcoming renewal of environmental permits for hydropower plants in Sweden, these findings provide valuable insights for policymakers. The importance of analysing hydropower's ability to sustain high outputs is not unique to Sweden; the method proposed in this study can serve as a critical tool for similar assessments in other hydro-rich countries. Moreover, the sustained output capabilities demonstrated in this study challenge the prevalent simplified representations of hydropower in energy models, highlighting the need for more sophisticated modelling approaches.

Energy droughts

Sustained output

Resilience

Renewables

Energy systems

Dunkelflaute

Hydropower

Modelling

Author

Hanna Ek Fälth

Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory

Fredrik Hedenus

Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory

Lina Reichenberg

Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory

Niclas Mattsson

Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Energy Technology

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

1364-0321 (ISSN) 18790690 (eISSN)

Vol. 214 115519

A robust energy system in Sweden and Europe

Swedish Energy Agency (P2022-00768), 2023-02-01 -- 2025-12-31.

Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)

Marine Engineering

Energy Systems

DOI

10.1016/j.rser.2025.115519

More information

Latest update

3/21/2025