A data-driven framework for risk and resilience analysis in maritime transportation systems: A case study of domino effect accidents in arctic waters
Journal article, 2025

Resilience is a complex concept that extends beyond risk, including the ability to absorb risks from external disturbances to maintain an acceptable level of safety. In the context of maritime transportation systems (MTS), resilience can be understood as a ship's ability to withstand disasters and ensure safe navigation in the face of unexpected incidents. This study proposes a data-driven framework for the quantitative analysis of risk and resilience in MTS, considering the temporal trends and domino effects of maritime accidents. The first step involves data preparation, which includes the collection, processing, and storage of global maritime accident data from the Lloyd's List Intelligence database spanning from 2014 to 2023. Next, an analysis of evolution trends is conducted to explore temporal trends and domino effects, focusing on the severity and pollution of maritime accidents. Arctic waters, known for their typical domino effects in maritime accidents, are chosen as a case study to illustrate the proposed risk and resilience analysis approach by considering the absorptive capacity in the evolution of maritime accidents. Furthermore, proactive and reactive risk control options are suggested for critical domino accident scenarios in Arctic waters to provide targeted recommendations for managing risks in Arctic shipping.

safety navigation

resilience analysis

Domino effect accidents

maritime safety

quantitative risk analysis

Maritime safetyQuantitative risk analysisResilience analysisSafe navigationDomino effect accidentsRisk control options

Author

Shanshan Fu

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences (M2), Marine Technology

Shanghai Maritime University

Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute

Qinya Tang

Shanghai Maritime University

Mingyang Zhang

Aalto University

Bin Han

State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety

Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute

Zhongdai Wu

State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety

Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute

Wengang Mao

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences (M2), Marine Technology

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

0951-8320 (ISSN)

Vol. 260 111049

Areas of Advance

Information and Communication Technology

Transport

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)

Reliability and Maintenance

DOI

10.1016/j.ress.2025.111049

More information

Latest update

4/4/2025 6