Charting the course to cleaner shipping routes: emission inventory for Baltic Sea shipping and green fuel potential
Journal article, 2025

This study presents a high-resolution shipping emission inventory for the Baltic Sea, assessing the environmental impacts of four fuel-based scenarios under a projected threefold increase in gross tonnage by 2050. The study evaluates how regulatory changes and alternative fuels, such as hydrogen and ammonia, can reduce emissions and advance sustainability in shipping. The study uses a bottom-up approach, combining activity data, fuel data, and emission factors to estimate tank-to-wake emissions. Comparative analysis indicates improved emissions prediction across all pollutants. While use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and scrubber-equipped ships reduce sulphur oxides (SOx) emissions, they incur notable environmental trade-offs. By 2050, significant reductions in particulate matter (99%) and carbon dioxide are projected, while SOx emissions are expected to approach zero using hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol fuels. These reductions are helped by the decline in traditional fuels and technological progress. The current transition to cleaner marine fuels is insufficient to meet the IMO’s 2030 and 2050 carbon reduction targets. While tank-to-wake contributes significantly toward emissions reduction, a broader focus on the well-to-wake approach is also critical for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Policy efforts should accelerate the adoption of green fuels and address challenges such as methane slip from LNG-powered ships.

emission inventory

alternative fuels

emission pathways

decarbonisation

Shipping emissions

Author

Rohan Kumar

Uppsala University

Kent Salo

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences (M2), Transport, Energy and Environment

Fabien Yao

École polytechnique

Sebe Maxime

École polytechnique

Recuero Vitro Laura

École polytechnique

Dennis Booge

Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres

Christa A. Maradino

Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres

Shams Al-Hajjaji

University of Kiel

Nele Matz-Luck

University of Kiel

A. Rutgersson

Uppsala University

Carbon Management

1758-3004 (ISSN) 17583012 (eISSN)

Vol. 16 1 2523919

Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)

Other Environmental Engineering

Environmental Sciences

Energy Systems

DOI

10.1080/17583004.2025.2523919

More information

Latest update

7/15/2025