An integrated risk assessment framework for fire accidents on passenger ships

Journal article, 2026

Passenger ships offer high capacity and comfort, but fires pose a serious risk of severe casualties. This paper proposes a framework for risk assessment of fire accidents on passenger ships by integrating failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), risk matrix (RM) and hybrid causal logic (HCL) model. First, based on maritime accident investigation reports, identify the critical risk scenarios that cause fires on passenger ships by applying FMEA and RM. Then, an HCL model is proposed to analyze the risk process of passenger ship fire accidents. The model integrates event sequence diagrams and fault tree analysis to systematically examine the development paths and root causes of passenger ship fires, and quantifies the probabilities of fire progression scenarios. The results show that the highest fire risk stems from a sequence of events: it begins with fuel leakage in the engine room, followed by a failure to promptly address the faulty equipment, which leads to a fire. Due to delayed detection or ineffective fire extinguishing operations, the fire cannot be suppressed and spreads rapidly. Key factors are identified, along with proposed risk control options. The proposed framework can be used for quantitative risk assessment of fire accidents on passenger ships.