Traffic Violation Risk and Policy Response in Commercial Transport: A Spatiotemporal and Causal Analysis

Paper in proceeding, 2025

As traffic violations remain a key contributor to road safety risks, especially within high-exposure sectors such as commercial transport, understanding how regulatory policies shape violation behavior is increasingly important. This study investigates the behavioral impacts of penalty adjustment policies on commercial vehicle traffic violations, focusing on regional enforcement disparities and dynamic risk patterns. Using administrative violation records from 13 cities in Jiangsu Province, China, we first analyze temporal and spatial distributions, revealing concentrated violation periods and citylevel differences shaped by road types and freight activity. Clustering based on fine amounts and license penalty points identifies three typical penalty modes and highlights systematic differences between southern and northern Jiangsu. We then apply a difference-in-differences (DID) model to estimate the causal impact of a nationwide penalty reduction policy, finding stronger effects in regions with higher enforcement visibility. Finally, survival analysis shows that the policy extended the interval before repeat violations only in cities with stricter enforcement. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring penalty design and enforcement strategies to regional conditions and operational contexts in the commercial transport sector.