Bridging Climate and Circular Economy Related Policy Targets: Insights from Material Requirements in the Renewable Electricity System

Paper in proceeding, 2023

Concerns over anthropogenic climate change and the fact that electrification is a key mitigation measure for the industry and transport sectors motivate rapid expansion of renewable energy, such as wind and solar energy. These technologies are preferred due to their cost-effectiveness, particularly in terms of levelized cost of electricity. Despite various global studies on material requirements for transitioning to low-carbon electricity systems, there is still a lack of research at the national level. Additionally, the potential of the electricity system to serve as a source of secondary materials remains largely unexplored. To address these gaps, we use dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) to investigate policy-relevant scenarios and explore the stocks and flows in Sweden's variable renewable electricity generation system up to 2050. We assess the demand for critical materials. Our findings show that scenarios with increasing shares of wind and solar energy lead to a significant rise in critical material stocks and flows. Previous studies suggest that the high demand for primary materials might be limited to the energy transition period. However, Sweden's commitment to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 makes it an interesting case since our energy scenarios run up to 2050. We demonstrate that material outflows from decommissioned plants generally increase until 2050, while inflows of materials in new installations decrease towards the end of the scenario period. This indicates a potential shift towards higher circularity, which could be achieved through recycling of material outflows. The development of material stocks and flows in wind and solar power systems is influenced by changes in lifetimes. In conclusion, national policies should prioritize maximizing material extraction from urban mines, promoting recycling processes, and advancing technological efficiency to support sustainable renewable energy growth.