Photovoltaics under constraints: Dynamic material flows, supply pressures and circularity in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Journal article, 2026

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), comprising 17 countries, has exceptional solar energy potential. Regardless of whether countries follow business-as-usual or coordinated net-zero energy transition pathways, unprecedented photovoltaic (PV) deployment is expected in the coming decades. However, raw material implications of this deployment remain underexplored. This study applies a dynamic material flow analysis to quantify deployment-driven material inflows, in-use stocks, and end-of-life outflows of PV systems in the EMME region over the period 2000–2055. The study further combines these results with supply pressure and circularity analyses.Results show that the region is already a major consumer of PV raw materials. Deployment, especially under nationally fragmented energy planning, is projected to deepen the pressure on primary demand. Regional energy integration towards the net-zero target reduces cumulative PV material stocks by about 30% compared to a nationally fragmented pathway. Germanium and tellurium fall under the high-risk category. Under High Circularity, with collection and recycling rates gradually rising to upper-bound levels by 2055, primary demand for the majority of PV materials can be avoided by 60%-80% in specific periods. For silver and germanium, recovered quantities can exceed projected demand.