Physics potential of the IceCube Upgrade for atmospheric neutrino oscillations
Journal article, 2026

The IceCube Upgrade is an extension of the existing IceCube Neutrino Observatory and will be deployed in the 2025-2026 austral summer. It will significantly improve the sensitivity of the detector to atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The existing 86-string IceCube array contains a dense in-fill known as DeepCore which is optimized to measure neutrinos with energies down to a few GeV. The IceCube Upgrade will consist of seven new densely instrumented strings placed within the DeepCore volume to further enhance the performance in the GeV energy range. The additional strings will feature new optical modules, each containing multiple photomultiplier tubes (PMTs), in contrast to the existing modules that each contain a single PMT. This will more than triple the number of PMT channels with respect to the current IceCube configuration, allowing for improved detection efficiency and reconstruction performance at GeV energies. We describe necessary updates to simulation, event selection, and reconstruction to accommodate the higher data rates observed by the upgraded detector and the addition of multi-PMT modules. We determine the expected sensitivity of the IceCube Upgrade to the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters sin(2)theta(23) and Delta m(32)(2), the appearance of tau neutrinos and the neutrino mass ordering. The IceCube Upgrade will provide neutrino oscillation measurements that are of similar precision to those from accelerator experiments, while providing complementarity by probing higher energies and longer baselines, and with different sources of systematic uncertainties.

Author

R. Abbasi

Loyola University of Chicago

M. Ackermann

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

J. Adams

University of Canterbury

S. K. Agarwalla

University of Wisconsin Madison

Institute of Physics Bhubaneswar

J. A. Aguilar

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

M. Ahlers

University of Copenhagen

J. M. Alameddine

Technische Universität Dortmund

S. Ali

University of Kansas

N. M. Amin

University of Delaware

K. Andeen

Marquette University

C. Arguelles

Harvard University

Y. Ashida

University of Utah

S. Athanasiadou

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

S. N. Axani

University of Delaware

R. Babu

Michigan State University

X. Bai

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology

J. Baines-Holmes

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Balagopal

University of Delaware

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. W. Barwick

University of California

S. Bash

Technical University of Munich

V. Basu

University of Utah

R. Bay

University of California

J. J. Beatty

Ohio State University

J. Becker Tjus

P. Behrens

RWTH Aachen University

J. Beise

Uppsala University

C. Bellenghi

Technical University of Munich

B. Benkel

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

S. BenZvi

University of Rochester

D. Berley

University of Maryland

E. Bernardini

National Institute for Nuclear Physics

University of Padua

D. Z. Besson

University of Kansas

E. Blaufuss

University of Maryland

L. Bloom

University of Alabama

S. Blot

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

I. Bodo

University of Wisconsin Madison

F. Bontempo

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

J. Y. Book Motzkin

Harvard University

C. Boscolo Meneguolo

University of Padua

National Institute for Nuclear Physics

S. Boser

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

O. Botner

Uppsala University

J. Bottcher

RWTH Aachen University

J. Braun

University of Wisconsin Madison

B. Brinson

Georgia Institute of Technology

Z. Brisson-Tsavoussis

Queen's University

R. T. Burley

University of Adelaide

D. Butterfield

University of Wisconsin Madison

M. A. Campana

Drexel University

K. Carloni

Harvard University

J. Carpio

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

S. Chattopadhyay

University of Wisconsin Madison

Institute of Physics Bhubaneswar

N. Chau

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

Z. Chen

State University of New York

D. Chirkin

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. Choi

University of Utah

B. A. Clark

University of Maryland

A. Coleman

Uppsala University

P. Coleman

RWTH Aachen University

G. H. Collin

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

D. A. Coloma Borja

University of Padua

A. Connolly

Ohio State University

J. M. Conrad

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

R. Corley

University of Utah

D. F. Cowen

Pennsylvania State University

C. De Clercq

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

J. J. DeLaunay

Pennsylvania State University

D. Delgado

Harvard University

T. Delmeulle

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

S. Deng

RWTH Aachen University

P. Desiati

University of Wisconsin Madison

K. D. de Vries

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

G. de Wasseige

Universite catholique de Louvain

T. DeYoung

Michigan State University

J. C. Diaz-Velez

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. DiKerby

Michigan State University

M. Dittmer

University of Münster

A. Domi

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

L. Draper

University of Utah

L. Dueser

RWTH Aachen University

D. Durnford

University of Alberta

K. Dutta

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

M. A. DuVernois

University of Wisconsin Madison

T. Ehrhardt

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

L. Eidenschink

Technical University of Munich

A. Eimer

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

P. Eller

Technical University of Munich

E. Ellinger

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

D. Elsasser

Technische Universität Dortmund

R. Engel

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

H. Erpenbeck

University of Wisconsin Madison

W. Esmail

University of Münster

S. Eulig

Harvard University

J. Evans

University of Maryland

P. A. Evenson

University of Delaware

K. L. Fan

University of Maryland

K. Fang

University of Wisconsin Madison

K. Farrag

Chiba University

A. R. Fazely

Southern University and A&M College

A. Fedynitch

Academia Sinica

N. Feigl

Humboldt University of Berlin

C. Finley

Stockholm University

L. Fischer

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

D. Fox

Pennsylvania State University

A. Franckowiak

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

S. Fukami

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

P. Furst

RWTH Aachen University

J. Gallagher

University of Wisconsin Madison

E. Ganster

RWTH Aachen University

A. Garcia

Harvard University

M. Garcia

University of Delaware

G. Garg

Institute of Physics Bhubaneswar

University of Wisconsin Madison

E. Genton

Harvard University

Universite catholique de Louvain

L. Gerhardt

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

A. Ghadimi

University of Alabama

C. Glaser

Uppsala University

T. Glusenkamp

Uppsala University

J. G. Gonzalez

University of Delaware

S. Goswami

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

A. Granados

Michigan State University

D. Grant

Simon Fraser University

S. J. Gray

University of Maryland

S. Griffin

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. Griswold

University of Rochester

K. M. Groth

University of Copenhagen

D. Guevel

University of Wisconsin Madison

C. Gunther

RWTH Aachen University

P. Gutjahr

Technische Universität Dortmund

C. Ha

Chung-Ang University

C. Haack

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

A. Hallgren

Uppsala University

L. Halve

RWTH Aachen University

F. Halzen

University of Wisconsin Madison

L. Hamacher

RWTH Aachen University

M. Ha Minh

Technical University of Munich

M. Handt

RWTH Aachen University

K. Hanson

University of Wisconsin Madison

J. Hardin

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

A. A. Harnisch

Michigan State University

P. Hatch

Queen's University

A. Haungs

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

J. Haussler

RWTH Aachen University

K. Helbing

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

J. Hellrung

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

B. Henke

Michigan State University

L. Hennig

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

F. Henningsen

Simon Fraser University

L. Heuermann

RWTH Aachen University

R. Hewett

University of Canterbury

N. Heyer

Uppsala University

S. Hickford

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

A. Hidvegi

Stockholm University

C. Hill

Chiba University

G. C. Hill

University of Adelaide

R. Hmaid

Chiba University

K. D. Hoffman

University of Maryland

D. Hooper

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. Hori

University of Wisconsin Madison

K. Hoshina

University of Tokyo

University of Wisconsin Madison

M. Hostert

Harvard University

W. Hou

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

T. Huber

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

K. Hultqvist

Stockholm University

K. Hymon

Academia Sinica

Technische Universität Dortmund

A. Ishihara

Chiba University

W. Iwakiri

Chiba University

M. Jacquart

University of Copenhagen

S. Jain

University of Wisconsin Madison

O. Janik

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

M. Jansson

Universite catholique de Louvain

M. Jeong

University of Utah

M. Jin

Harvard University

N. Kamp

Harvard University

D. Kang

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

W. Kang

Drexel University

X. Kang

Drexel University

A. Kappes

University of Münster

L. Kardum

Technische Universität Dortmund

T. Karg

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

M. Karl

Technical University of Munich

A. Karle

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Katil

University of Alberta

T. Katori

King's College London

M. Kauer

University of Wisconsin Madison

J. L. Kelley

University of Wisconsin Madison

M. Khanal

University of Utah

A. Khatee Zathul

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Kheirandish

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

H. Kimku

Chung-Ang University

J. Kiryluk

State University of New York

C. Klein

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

S. R. Klein

University of California

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Y. Kobayashi

Chiba University

A. Kochocki

Michigan State University

R. Koirala

University of Delaware

H. Kolanoski

Humboldt University of Berlin

T. Kontrimas

Technical University of Munich

L. Kopke

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

C. Kopper

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

D. J. Koskinen

University of Copenhagen

P. Koundal

University of Delaware

M. Kowalski

Humboldt University of Berlin

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

T. Kozynets

University of Copenhagen

N. Krieger

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

J. Krishnamoorthi

University of Wisconsin Madison

Institute of Physics Bhubaneswar

T. Krishnan

Harvard University

K. Kruiswijk

Universite catholique de Louvain

E. Krupczak

Michigan State University

A. Kumar

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

E. Kun

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

N. Kurahashi

Drexel University

N. Lad

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

C. Lagunas Gualda

Technical University of Munich

L. Lallement Arnaud

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

M. Lamoureux

Universite catholique de Louvain

M. J. Larson

University of Maryland

F. Lauber

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

J. P. Lazar

Universite catholique de Louvain

K. Leonard DeHolton

Pennsylvania State University

A. Leszczynska

University of Delaware

J. Liao

Georgia Institute of Technology

C. Lin

University of Delaware

Y. T. Liu

Pennsylvania State University

M. Liubarska

University of Alberta

C. Love

Drexel University

L. Lu

University of Wisconsin Madison

F. Lucarelli

University of Geneva

W. Luszczak

Ohio State University

Y. Lyu

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

University of California

J. Madsen

University of Wisconsin Madison

E. Magnus

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

Y. Makino

University of Wisconsin Madison

E. Manao

Technical University of Munich

S. Mancina

University of Padua

National Institute for Nuclear Physics

A. Mand

University of Wisconsin Madison

I. C. Maris

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

S. Marka

Columbia University

Z. Marka

Columbia University

L. Marten

RWTH Aachen University

I. Martinez-Soler

Harvard University

R. Maruyama

Yale University

J. Mauro

Universite catholique de Louvain

F. Mayhew

Michigan State University

F. McNally

Mercer University

J. V. Mead

University of Copenhagen

K. Meagher

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. Mechbal

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

A. Medina

Ohio State University

M. Meier

Chiba University

Y. Merckx

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

L. Merten

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

A. Millsop

King's College London

J. Mitchell

Southern University and A&M College

L. Molchany

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology

T. Montaruli

University of Geneva

R. W. Moore

University of Alberta

Y. Morii

Chiba University

A. Mosbrugger

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

M. Moulai

University of Wisconsin Madison

D. Mousadi

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

E. Moyaux

Universite catholique de Louvain

T. Mukherjee

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

R. Naab

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

M. Nakos

University of Wisconsin Madison

U. Naumann

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

J. Necker

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

L. Neste

Stockholm University

M. Neumann

University of Münster

H. Niederhausen

Michigan State University

M. U. Nisa

Michigan State University

K. Noda

Chiba University

A. Noell

RWTH Aachen University

A. Novikov

University of Delaware

A. Obertacke Pollmann

Chiba University

V. O'Dell

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Olivas

University of Maryland

R. Orsoe

Technical University of Munich

J. Osborn

University of Wisconsin Madison

E. O'Sullivan

Uppsala University

V. Palusova

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

H. Pandya

University of Delaware

A. Parenti

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

N. Park

Queen's University

V. Parrish

Michigan State University

E. N. Paudel

University of Alabama

L. Paul

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology

C. P. Erez de los Heros

Uppsala University

T. Pernice

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

J. Peterson

University of Wisconsin Madison

M. Plum

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology

A. Ponten

Uppsala University

V. Poojyam

University of Alabama

Y. Popovych

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

J. Prado Gonzalez

University of Copenhagen

M. Prado Rodriguez

University of Wisconsin Madison

B. Pries

Michigan State University

R. Procter-Murphy

University of Maryland

G. T. Przybylski

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

L. Pyras

University of Utah

C. Raab

Universite catholique de Louvain

J. Rack-Helleis

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

N. Rad

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

M. Ravn

Uppsala University

K. Rawlins

University of Alaska Anchorage

Z. Rechav

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Rehman

University of Delaware

I. Reistroffer

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology

E. Resconi

Technical University of Munich

S. Reusch

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

C. D. Rho

Sungkyunkwan University

W. Rhode

Technische Universität Dortmund

L. Ricca

Universite catholique de Louvain

B. Riedel

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Rifaie

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

E. J. Roberts

University of Adelaide

S. Robertson

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

University of California

M. Rongen

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

A. Rosted

Chiba University

C. Rott

University of Utah

T. Ruhe

Technische Universität Dortmund

L. Ruohan

Technical University of Munich

D. Ryckbosch

Ghent university

J. Saffer

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

D. Salazar-Gallegos

Michigan State University

P. Sampathkumar

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

A. Sandrock

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

G. Sanger-Johnson

Michigan State University

M. Santander

University of Alabama

S. Sarkar

University of Oxford

J. Savelberg

RWTH Aachen University

M. Scarnera

Universite catholique de Louvain

P. Schaile

Technical University of Munich

M. Schaufel

RWTH Aachen University

H. Schieler

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

S. Schindler

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

L. Schlickmann

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

B. Schluter

University of Münster

F. Schluter

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

N. Schmeisser

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

T. Schmidt

University of Maryland

F. G. Schroder

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

University of Delaware

L. Schumacher

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

S. Schwirn

RWTH Aachen University

S. Sclafani

University of Maryland

D. Seckel

University of Delaware

L. Seen

University of Wisconsin Madison

M. Seikh

University of Kansas

S. Seunarine

University of Wisconsin

P. A. Sevle Myhr

Universite catholique de Louvain

R. Shah

Drexel University

S. Shefali

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

N. Shimizu

Chiba University

B. Skrzypek

University of California

R. Snihur

University of Wisconsin Madison

J. Soedingrekso

Technische Universität Dortmund

A. Sogaard

University of Copenhagen

D. Soldin

University of Utah

P. Soldin

RWTH Aachen University

G. Sommani

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

C. Spannfellner

Technical University of Munich

G. M. Spiczak

University of Wisconsin

C. Spiering

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

J. Stachurska

Ghent university

M. Stamatikos

Ohio State University

T. Stanev

University of Delaware

T. Stezelberger

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

T. Sturwald

Bergische Universität Wuppertal

T. Stuttard

University of Copenhagen

G. W. Sullivan

University of Maryland

I. Taboada

Georgia Institute of Technology

S. Ter-Antonyan

Southern University and A&M College

A. Terliuk

Technical University of Munich

A. Thakuri

South Dakota School of Mines & Technology

M. Thiesmeyer

University of Wisconsin Madison

W. G. Thompson

Harvard University

J. Thwaites

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. Tilav

University of Delaware

K. Tollefson

Michigan State University

S. Toscano

Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

D. Tosi

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Trettin

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

A. K. Upadhyay

University of Wisconsin Madison

Institute of Physics Bhubaneswar

K. Upshaw

Southern University and A&M College

A. Vaidyanathan

Marquette University

N. Valtonen-Mattila

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

Uppsala University

J. Valverde

Marquette University

J. Vandenbroucke

University of Wisconsin Madison

T. Van Eeden

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

N. van Eijndhoven

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

L. Van Rootselaar

Technische Universität Dortmund

J. van Santen

Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY)

J. Vara

University of Münster

F. Varsi

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

M. Venugopal

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

M. Vereecken

Universite catholique de Louvain

S. Vergara Carrasco

University of Canterbury

S. Verpoest

University of Delaware

D. Veske

Columbia University

A. Vijai

University of Maryland

J. Villarreal

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

C. Walck

Stockholm University

A. Wang

Georgia Institute of Technology

E. H. S. Warrick

University of Alabama

C. Weaver

Michigan State University

P. Weigel

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

A. Weindl

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

J. Weldert

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

A. Y. Wen

Harvard University

C. Wendt

University of Wisconsin Madison

J. Werthebach

Technische Universität Dortmund

M. Weyrauch

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)

N. Whitehorn

Michigan State University

C. H. Wiebusch

RWTH Aachen University

D. R. Williams

University of Alabama

L. Witthaus

Technische Universität Dortmund

M. Wolf

Technical University of Munich

G. Wrede

University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU)

X. W. Xu

Southern University and A&M College

J. P. Yanez

University of Alberta

Y. Yao

University of Wisconsin Madison

E. Yildizci

University of Wisconsin Madison

S. Yoshida

Chiba University

R. Young

University of Kansas

F. Yu

Harvard University

S. Yu

University of Utah

T. Yuan

University of Wisconsin Madison

A. Zegarelli

Ruhr-Universität Bochum

S. Zhang

Michigan State University

Z. Zhang

State University of New York

P. Zhelnin

Harvard University

P. Zilberman

University of Wisconsin Madison

Physical Review D

2470-0010 (ISSN) 2470-0029 (eISSN)

Vol. 113 7 072009

Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)

Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Cosmology

Subatomic Physics

DOI

10.1103/nnjw-jp1n

More information

Latest update

5/29/2026