Identifying Potential Sources of Uncertainties in Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Manufacturing Machines: Lessons Learned from a Retrospective Case Study

Paper in proceeding, 2026

This paper presents a retrospective case study comparing a life cycle cost analysis performed ten years ago with the actual cost outcome between 2014-2023. It does so to exemplify and problematize the notion of uncertainty. Through an industrial case it gives recommendations to practitioners how to reduce it. By a quantitative cost follow-up and a qualitative focus group study with key representatives of the case company the paper sets out to code sources of uncertainties, and to categorize these into either epistemic/aleatoric and into internal/external. The paper contribution is a suggested framework on management of uncertainties in industrial LCC.