Embodied CO2 emissions of China’s road pavements and their redistribution potential

Journal article, 2027

Understanding the embodied CO2 emissions of road pavements as long-lived material stocks is essential for anticipating future infrastructure-related emissions beyond production-side efficiency improvements. This study quantifies the embodied CO2 emissions of China’s existing road pavement network using a parametric and probabilistic life cycle assessment covering material production, transportation, and construction. The embodied CO2 locked-in the China’s present-day road pavements is estimated to be 2.54 Gt CO2, equivalent to about 9% of national construction-related life-cycle emissions during 2017–2022, with strong spatial disparities across cities (0.39–100.43 t per capita). If all cities reached the national average road material stock per capita by 2030 through new construction alone, 9 Gt of additional materials would be required, generating 495 Mt CO2. In contrast, under a scenario with 80% RAP incorporation and a transport distance of 200 km, the inter-city redistribution and recycling of surplus road materials could avoid 2.6 Mt CO2.