Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study
Journal article, 2010

As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML) scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

Process safety

Risk with insurance

Estimated maximum loss

Rifinery insurance


Mikael Gustavsson

Chalmers, Product and Production Development, Production Systems

Mohammad Shahriari

Chalmers, Product and Production Development, Production Systems

Mats Lindgren

Chalmers, Product and Production Development, Production Systems

International Journal of Chemical Engineering

1687-806X (ISSN) 1687-8078 (eISSN)

Vol. 2010 Article ID 104370 104370

Subject Categories

Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics

Chemical Engineering

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Areas of Advance




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