Modelling Energy demand to 2050 in the EU Building Stock – a bottom-up analysis

Paper in proceeding, 2012

Lowering absolute energy demand in buildings is a key policy goal of the EU. This is to be achieved primarily through improvements in end use efficiency. This paper presents results of a modelling work which examines three different scenarios for efficiency of energy end uses for the EU 27 building stock to 2050. The model is a coarse bottom-up engineering variant. The model and scenarios applied are described and the results obtained are related to EU goals and aspirations for 2020 and 2050. Model outputs estimate that if energy efficiency was frozen at today’s level, expansion of the building stock and other increases in standards would increase final energy demand in the EU by almost 70% by 2050 whereas continuing efforts at efficiency along current rates could stabilise energy demand. A reduction consistent with the EU’s 20% efficiency improvement target for the year 2020 is also shown to be possible, but needs forceful policy for success. Results from the work also show that the EU aspiration for a reduction in CO2 emissions of 90 % from buildings by 2050 can be met via the penetration of biomass, district heating and heat pumps at the building level provided there is sufficient decarbonisation of the supply system as well.