Medium-term Electricity Price Forecasting

Paper in proceeding, 2012

-Medium-term price forecasting plays an impor­tant role in electricity markets. Obtaining reasonably accurate medium-term electricity price predictions is critical in many applications, such as maintenance scheduling, generation ex­pansion planning, and bilateral contracting. Medium-term price forecasting is a complex task because of the long forecasting horizon, dependence of medium-term electricity prices to various variables, and limited availability of explanatory data. In this paper, different aspects of a medium-term electricity price fore­casting are discussed, and several data-driven 12-month-ahead approaches are developed. The presented approaches are applied to NordPool and the Ontario electricity market to examine their performance and effectiveness.