A Statistical Arima Model to Predict Arctic Environment for NSR Shipping
Paper in proceeding, 2021

Safe and energy-efficient ship navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) requires reliable sea ice concentration (SIC) information. However, the SIC forecast used to assist NSR shipping is often inaccurate. This study proposes a statistical interpolation method to reduce the errors induced by the traditional nearest grid point interpolation method. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is developed based on ERA5 reanalysis data. The ARIMA model can be used for short-term SIC forecasts along the NSR. Model validation has been conducted to compare the SIC forecast with ensemble experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), achieving good agreements. The route availability is estimated according to the SIC forecast. The results indicate that the specified NSR will be open for shipping from 2021 to 2025. The work also indicates the feasibility of the proposed statistical models to assist NSR shipping management.

ARIMA model

Arctic shipping

time series analysis

Sea ice concentration

Author

Da Wu

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Marine Technology

Xiao Lang

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Marine Technology

Wengang Mao

Chalmers, Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Marine Technology

Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering - OMAE

40th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore & Arctic Engineering
Virtual, ,

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Areas of Advance

Transport

Subject Categories

Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Probability Theory and Statistics

Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering

More information

Created

8/23/2021