Developing a national forecast hub for infectious diseases

Research Project, 2026 – 2027

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted both the utility and limitations of epidemiological modelling for public health decision-making. While individual models informed healthcare planning and policy, their predictive power was limited by structural and parametric uncertainty. To address this, forecast hubs, which aggregated predictions from multiple models, proved more robust and accurate. Building on the existing SEMAFOR network, this project aims to develop and maintain a Swedish national forecast hub for infectious diseases. The hub will serve as a collaborative platform where researchers contribute model-based predictions for evaluation and ensemble generation. Three main goals guide the project: establishing common data standards and evaluation metrics, developing infrastructure using open-source platforms, and organizing forecasting challenges on both synthetic and real-world data, including seasonal epidemics. Through structured collaboration, workshops, and integration with public health authorities, the hub will enhance Sweden’s pandemic preparedness, support evidence-based decision-making, and foster a sustainable modelling community that includes junior researchers. This initiative will also contribute to the international epidemiological community, advancing state-of-the-art knowledge about infectious disease forecasting.