Socio-economic cost savings through risk assessment of ship collisions with transport infrastructure

Research Project, 2016 – 2019

Risk analyses are made for all infrastructural projects, which supports projection and maintenance. For projects regarding maritime infrastructure in coastal waters, e.g. bridges, a central part of the risk analysis is the probability and consequence of collisions between ships and infrastructure. The cost of constructing new bridges amounts to billions per bridge and tens of millions for each time large maintenance is carried out. Furthermore, poor dimensioning can result in bridges collapsing when collisions with ships occur, with fatal consequences as a result. Hence, from a socio-economic perspective, it is of significant importance that bridges are adequately dimensioned to resist collisions from ships. 

The current methods used for risk analysis for collision between ships and infrastructure are old and based in inexact data that are on a general (e.g. international) level. However, the digitalization that takes places enables studying vessel movement within a geographical area with high accuracy. Through AIS-data (on ship type, vessel speed, direction etc.), which when stored becomes Big Data, vessel movement around maritime infrastructure can be studied and vessel movement around future bridges can be assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. This makes it possible to quantify the probability of collision and size of collision forces. Hence, the aim of the project is to develop a method to quantify risk and impact of ship collisions to better dimension and motivate maintenance of transport-infrastructure. The project will be performed as an industrial Ph.D. project at SSPA Sweden AB, with the support of Swedish and Norwegian road administrations, and Chalmers University of Technology.