Sustainable Mobility: Insights from a Global Energy Model

Book chapter, 2013

A global energy model that includes a detailed description of light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies was used to investigate cost-effective light-duty vehicle/fuel technologies in a carbon-constrained world. Total CO2 emissions were constrained to achieve stabilization at 450–550 ppm by 2100 at the lowest total system cost. Three conclusions emerge. First, there is no ‘‘silver bullet’’ vehicle or fuel technology. Given the current uncertainties in future costs/efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned. Second, a multi-sector perspective is needed when addressing greenhouse gas emissions. Connections between transportation and other energy sectors are likely to become important in the future. Third, alternative fuels are needed in response to the expected dwindling oil and natural gas supply potential by the end of the century, which were used almost completely in all scenarios (even for a 450 ppm CO2 target).