Estimating future balancing power requirements in wind-PV power system
Journal article, 2016

This paper presents a general model based on the Monte Carlo simulation for the estimation of power system uncertainties and associated reserve and balancing power requirements. The proposed model comprises wind, PV and load uncertainty, together with wind and PV production simulation. In the first stage of the model, wind speed and solar irradiation are simulated, based on the plant disposition and relevant data. The second stage of the model consists of wind speed, PV power and load forecast error simulation, based on the associated statistical parameters. Finally, both wind and PV forecast error are combined with the load forecast error, resulting in the net uncertainty. This net uncertainty, aggregated on a yearly level, presents a dominant component in balancing power requirements. Proposed model presents an efficient solution in planning phase when the actual data on wind and PV production is unavailable. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Balancing power

Stochastic process

Monte Carlo simulation

Wind power

PV power

Author

Josip Vasilj

Chalmers, Signals and Systems, Systems and control

P. Sarajcev

University of Split

D. Jakus

University of Split

Renewable Energy

0960-1481 (ISSN) 18790682 (eISSN)

Vol. 99 369-378

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Subject Categories

Control Engineering

DOI

10.1016/j.renene.2016.06.063

More information

Created

10/8/2017