Generic algorithm to assess moisture susceptibility of simplified wall assemblies
Journal article, 2019

A simplified wall assembly consisting of four material elements is considered. Optional vapor retarder and thermal resistances are located between the elements. A simplified numerical model is presented to perform probability-based risk analysis using the Monte Carlo method. The risk assessment of the wall assembly considers the interior and exterior climatic load. The moisture transport mechanism accounted for in the analysis is diffusion. A prescribed rain load is assumed to be transferred directly to a chosen outer susceptible material element in the construction. A case study with a wooden wall structure is analyzed and the probability distribution of the time of wetness is presented for a case using 30 different climatic years, randomly varying indoor moisture excess, indoor temperature and rain leakages. The results show that, in the case investigated in this paper, the simulations converged after 600 years. The proposed simplified model, combined with the use of Monte Carlo simulations, offer an opportunity for a systematic assessment of risk.

simplified model

risk analysis


wooden wall


Monte Carlo simulation


Carl-Eric Hagentoft

Chalmers, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Building Technology

Pär Johansson

Chalmers, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Building Technology

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering

0315-1468 (ISSN) 1208-6029 (eISSN)

Vol. 46 11 990-995

National Transdisciplinary Centre of Excellence for Integrated Sustainable Renovation (SIRen)

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Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Areas of Advance

Building Futures (2010-2018)

Subject Categories

Other Civil Engineering

Building Technologies



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