The relationship between impact and probability in supply chain risk management: A cargo theft example
Journal article, 2021

This study analyses the relationship between probability and impact for different combinations of incident and transport chain location type, based on supply chain risk management theories. A deductive research method is used, employing data from the transport-related crime database IIS (Incident Information Service).  While the total risk may be the same for different probability–impact combinations, different risk management strategies are required. Regressing probability on impact gives an estimated effect of about -0.5, instead of the theoretically expected -1, indicating that an impact reducing strategy may reduce the total cargo theft risk more than a probability-focused strategy. An alternative risk ranking approach is suggested, which emphasizes impact risk as more important than probability risk, implying that certain modi operandi are generating higher impact losses. The risk management strategy should therefore focus on reducing the probability for those incident categories.

Transport chain location

Cargo theft

Risk Management

Supply chain risk

Concept of Risk


Daniel Ekwall

Björn Lantz

Chalmers, Technology Management and Economics, Innovation and R&D Management, Innovation and R&D Management

International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management

1753-7169 (ISSN) 1753-7177 (eISSN)

Vol. In press

Analysis and mitigation of cargo theft risk

The Wallenberg Foundations, Peter Wallenberg, 2016-01-01 -- 2017-12-31.

Areas of Advance


Subject Categories

Transport Systems and Logistics

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