Where have all the forests gone? Quantifying pantropical deforestation drivers

Doctoral thesis, 2022

Deforestation across the tropics continues to be a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and the largest threat to biodiversity on land. With strengthened commitments to reduce deforestation from countries and companies alike, it is crucial that renewed investments for reducing deforestation be guided by a sound understanding of what drives deforestation. This thesis gives a comprehensive picture of the amount of deforestation and concomitant carbon emissions driven by the expansion of agricultural commodities across the tropics and its link to international trade. The included papers show that pasture and a handful of crops drive a large share of the deforestation resulting in the expansion of productive agriculture. The main demand for these commodities is domestic consumption; even so, imports of food commodities associated with deforestation can still constitute a large part of the consumer countries’ carbon emissions due to consumption (e.g., in the EU). This thesis contributes empirical evidence relating to forest transition theories by showing that many countries with increasing forest cover tend to import products associated with deforestation elsewhere, thereby offsetting around one-third of their forest gains. The thesis also introduces a conceptual distinction between two categories of agriculture-driven deforestation, based on whether it results in productive agricultural land or not. Though almost all deforestation is agriculture-driven, one-third to one-half of agriculture-driven deforestation occurs without the expansion of productive agricultural land. Instead, it may be due to several potential mechanisms, such as land speculation, tenure issues, or fires. Put together, these results indicate that it is crucial that policies to curb deforestation go beyond focusing only on trade in specific commodities, to help foster concerted action on rural development, territorial governance, and land-use planning. This thesis also highlights key evidence gaps on the links between deforestation and agriculture: (i) the attribution of deforestation to specific commodities currently often relies on coarse or outdated data, (ii) there is a need for improved data on deforestation trends, and (iii) our understanding of deforestation drivers is systematically poorer for dry forests and Africa.