Where have all the forests gone? Quantifying pantropical deforestation drivers
Doctoral thesis, 2022

Deforestation across the tropics continues to be a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and the largest threat to biodiversity on land. With strengthened commitments to reduce deforestation from countries and companies alike, it is crucial that renewed investments for reducing deforestation be guided by a sound understanding of what drives deforestation. This thesis gives a comprehensive picture of the amount of deforestation and concomitant carbon emissions driven by the expansion of agricultural commodities across the tropics and its link to international trade. The included papers show that pasture and a handful of crops drive a large share of the deforestation resulting in the expansion of productive agriculture. The main demand for these commodities is domestic consumption; even so, imports of food commodities associated with deforestation can still constitute a large part of the consumer countries’ carbon emissions due to consumption (e.g., in the EU). This thesis contributes empirical evidence relating to forest transition theories by showing that many countries with increasing forest cover tend to import products associated with deforestation elsewhere, thereby offsetting around one-third of their forest gains. The thesis also introduces a conceptual distinction between two categories of agriculture-driven deforestation, based on whether it results in productive agricultural land or not. Though almost all deforestation is agriculture-driven, one-third to one-half of agriculture-driven deforestation occurs without the expansion of productive agricultural land. Instead, it may be due to several potential mechanisms, such as land speculation, tenure issues, or fires. Put together, these results indicate that it is crucial that policies to curb deforestation go beyond focusing only on trade in specific commodities, to help foster concerted action on rural development, territorial governance, and land-use planning. This thesis also highlights key evidence gaps on the links between deforestation and agriculture: (i) the attribution of deforestation to specific commodities currently often relies on coarse or outdated data, (ii) there is a need for improved data on deforestation trends, and (iii) our understanding of deforestation drivers is systematically poorer for dry forests and Africa.

Carbon footprints

International trade

Deforestation

Consumption-based accounting

Forest transitions

Telecoupling

Agriculture

Land use change

Carbon emissions

Land system science

ED, lecture hall, EDIT trappa C, D och H, Campus Johanneberg
Opponent: Kimberly Carlson, New York University, US.

Author

Florence Pendrill

Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory

Felling forests for food, feed, and futility

Deforestation threatens forests across large parts of the tropics, mainly to make space for expanding cropland, pastures, and tree plantations. This comes at high costs: deforestation affects Earth’s climate, both locally and globally, and when the forest disappears so does the habitat for a myriad of species. Understanding why deforestation is happening can help us figure out what governments and private sector actors need to do to stop it in an effective way.

This thesis is about the ways agriculture drives deforestation. It seeks to clarify how much deforestation is caused by the expansion of pastures and crops across the tropics. It then asks in which countries the agricultural commodities end up being consumed. This thesis does so by combining maps and agricultural statistics with what we already know about the processes behind deforestation. It also highlights some of the things we don’t know. The included papers show that a small number of commodities – especially cattle products, palm oil, and soy, but also maize, rice, cassava, rubber, cocoa, and coffee – drive a large share of the deforestation, to a large part due to domestic consumption. Additionally, although agriculture drives almost all tropical deforestation, part of the cleared land does not actually end up being used for agricultural production. This implies that efforts to curb deforestation are more likely to be effective if their goal focuses on strengthening forest and land-use governance in producer countries.

Greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss from land use change embodied in international trade of agricultural commodities - a pan-tropical assesement

Formas (2014-1181), 2015-01-01 -- 2019-03-31.

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Subject Categories

Social and Economic Geography

Social Sciences Interdisciplinary

Agricultural Science

Forest Science

Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Physical Geography

Environmental Sciences

ISBN

978-91-7905-744-2

Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola. Ny serie: 5210

Publisher

Chalmers

ED, lecture hall, EDIT trappa C, D och H, Campus Johanneberg

Online

Opponent: Kimberly Carlson, New York University, US.

Related datasets

Deforestation risk embodied in production and consumption of agricultural and forestry commodities 2005-2018 [dataset]

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4250531 URI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4250531

More information

Latest update

10/25/2023