Will the Nordics Become an Export Hub for Electro Fuels and Electricity?

Book chapter, 2024

The Nordics have a huge renewable energy potential, mainly in the form of onshore and offshore wind as well as biomass potentials and can deliver some of the lowest electricity prices in Europe. They could export large amounts of electricity and hydrogen, supplying mainland Europe and abroad. But where and when should wind, PV and green fuel production capacity be built, and what kind of infrastructure is needed? Within the Nordics—who can/will become a net exporter of electricity and green fuels? To avoid sub-optimal solutions, some overall analysis and planning may be needed to secure societal benefits and reduce the overall cost. By comparing plans and visions for the build-out of electrolyser capacity, electricity and gas infrastructure, and wind and solar projects, we discuss consistency (or lack thereof) in the project pipelines. Furthermore, the future role of the Nordics is discussed by comparing scenario analysis from different modelling teams to identify robust conclusions and critical uncertainties. The impact goes beyond SDG 13 (Climate action) and supports e.g., SDG 8 (Decent work and economic growth) by implementing a more sustainable economic system and also offers the opportunity to provide affordable and clean energy (SDG 7).