A Participatory Energy Systems Modeling Approach – Insights on the Local Dynamics of Passenger Car Decarbonization

Licentiate thesis, 2024

While some literature incorporates a local energy systems perspective in energy transition analyses, describing these transitions as context-specific processes, this local perspective is often overlooked in existing studies on road transport decarbonization. This raises the question of how to address this transition locally.

This thesis, by developing and applying a new framework – participatory energy systems modeling – aims to evaluate road transport decarbonization at the local level. Specifically, it investigates the influence of socio-geographical contexts and their specific characteristics on the decarbonization of road transport, with a particular focus on passenger cars. The proposed framework advances an Energy Systems Optimization Model (ESOM) that integrates local spatial dynamics by assessing different local modeling scenarios. These scenarios stem from a participatory approach (PA), where pathways are developed based on discussions with local stakeholders, such as municipal officials. The significance of local spatial dynamics is further explored by comparing the evolution of the passenger cars system at both the national (i.e., country) and local (i.e., municipality) levels, as well as in urban and non-urban municipalities.

At the national level and within urban contexts, where annual average mileages and trip distances are typically low, the model tends to favor vehicles with lower upfront costs. Conversely, in non-urban contexts with longer trip distances, the emphasis shifts towards vehicles that enhance fuel economy and low fuel cost, despite their higher upfront purchase costs. Furthermore, the analysis of the modeled local scenarios emphasizes the importance of fleet electrification. However, it also highlighted the necessity of integrating fleet electrification with developing a resilient electric grid capable of accommodating the growing demand for electricity from variable renewable energy sources (VRESs). While non-urban areas can manage increased electricity demand through renewable energy production, urban areas may face challenges in meeting their demand solely with VRESs. Consequently, due to stringent local electricity production constraints, urban areas are likely to rely more on imported fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen.

Overall, this thesis concludes that while a national perspective can adequately prescribe long-term solutions, it often overlooks the importance of local specifications in road transport decarbonization. Incorporating local spatial dynamics in ESOM becomes essential for accurately describing the transition and creating inclusive, resilient transport systems. This thesis advocates, thus, for tailored approaches over “one-size-fits-all” strategies, aligning with the European Commission’s call to engage local authorities.