Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050
Journal article, 2025
Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.
Author
Rik van Heerden
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Oreane Edelenbosch
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Utrecht University
Vassilis Daioglou
Utrecht University
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Thomas Le Gallic
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement
Luiz Bernardo Baptista
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Alice Di Bella
Polytechnic University of Milan
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Francesco Pietro Colelli
Universita Ca' Foscari Venezia
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Johannes Emmerling
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Panagiotis Fragkos
E3M-Modelling
Robin Hasse
Technische Universität Berlin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Johanna Hoppe
Technische Universität Berlin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Paul Kishmoto
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Florian Leblanc
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement
Julien Lefèvre
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement
Gunnar Luderer
Technische Universität Berlin
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Giacomo Marangoni
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Faculteit Techniek, Bestuur en Management, TU Delft
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Alessio Mastrucci
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Hazel Pettifor
University of Oxford
Robert Pietzcker
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Pedro Rochedo
Khalifa University
Bas J. van Ruijven
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Roberto Schaeffer
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Charlie Wilson
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
University of Oxford
Sonia Yeh
Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory
Eleftheria Zisarou
E3M-Modelling
Detlef van Vuuren
Utrecht University
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Nature Energy
20587546 (eISSN)
3077Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)
Other Environmental Engineering
Energy Engineering
Energy Systems
DOI
10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1