Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2025
Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.
Författare
Rik van Heerden
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Oreane Edelenbosch
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Universiteit Utrecht
Vassilis Daioglou
Universiteit Utrecht
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Thomas Le Gallic
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement
Luiz Bernardo Baptista
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
Alice Di Bella
Politecnico di Milano
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Francesco Pietro Colelli
Universita Ca' Foscari Venezia
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Johannes Emmerling
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Panagiotis Fragkos
E3M-Modelling
Robin Hasse
Technische Universität Berlin
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
Johanna Hoppe
Technische Universität Berlin
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
Paul Kishmoto
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
Florian Leblanc
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement
Julien Lefèvre
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Developpement
Gunnar Luderer
Technische Universität Berlin
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
Giacomo Marangoni
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici
Faculteit Techniek, Bestuur en Management, TU Delft
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Milan
Alessio Mastrucci
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
Hazel Pettifor
University of Oxford
Robert Pietzcker
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
Pedro Rochedo
Khalifa University
Bas J. van Ruijven
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
Roberto Schaeffer
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
Charlie Wilson
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
University of Oxford
Sonia Yeh
Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori
Eleftheria Zisarou
E3M-Modelling
Detlef van Vuuren
Universiteit Utrecht
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Nature Energy
20587546 (eISSN)
3077Ämneskategorier (SSIF 2025)
Annan naturresursteknik
Energiteknik
Energisystem
DOI
10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1