Arctic wildfire carbon emissions strongly influenced by midsummer Tibetan Plateau precipitation
Journal article, 2025
Wildfires in the Arctic are accelerating ecosystem damage and increasing global carbon emissions. Siberia, a major Arctic wildfire hotspot, is shaped by both local weather and distant climate influences. Here we use climate reanalysis data and numerical model experiments to show that summer wildfires in Siberia are strongly influenced by rainfall patterns over the Tibetan Plateau, one of the Northern Hemisphere’s largest summer heat sources. A dipole in Tibetan Plateau rainfall—wetter in the west, drier in the east—coincides with more fires in central Siberia and fewer in the east. This pattern alters high-altitude winds, shifting the jet stream northward and generating air flow changes that create favorable fire conditions across Siberia. Model experiments support a causal link. The resulting carbon dioxide emissions can match annual emissions from all Nordic countries. These findings highlight an overlooked driver of Arctic wildfires and improve our understanding of their role in the global carbon cycle.
Author
Xiaoye Yang
University of Gothenburg
Haolin Luo
Chengdu University of Information Technology
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)
Ziqian Zhong
Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Geoscience and Remote Sensing
Chang Hoi Ho
Ewha Womans University
Gang Zeng
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Hui Wen Lai
University of Gothenburg
Tinghai Ou
University of Gothenburg
Wei Chyung Wang
State University of New York
Deliang Chen
Tsinghua University
University of Gothenburg
Communications Earth and Environment
26624435 (eISSN)
Vol. 6 1 559Unveiling the impacts of vapor pressure deficit on forest productivity (VAPOR)
European Commission (EC) (EC/HE/101154385), 2024-09-19 -- 2025-09-18.
Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)
Climate Science
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
DOI
10.1038/s43247-025-02505-9