Future-proofing positive energy districts: climate change impacts on energy demand and supply in Jättesten, Gothenburg

Paper in proceeding, 2025

Positive Energy Districts (PEDs) are based on the EU directive on energy transition pathways, promoting energy-resilient communities. PEDs produce more energy than they consume via renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, energy flexibility, and decarbonised mobility. Current research on PEDs focuses on technology deployment, literature studies, legislation, and implementation frameworks but lacks consideration of climate change impacts. PED strategies use Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) datasets, which omit unusual events like heat waves. PED planning requires climate data reflecting Future Climate Scenarios (FCS), especially in heating-dominated regions facing new cooling demands. This study investigates the impact of FCS on candidate residential buildings currently under consideration for PED transformation. The case study examines the Jättesten neighbourhood in Gothenburg, Sweden. Jättesten is a residential district undergoing renovations. This study uses FCS for 2080 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The research aims to investigate the impact of climate change on PEDs under FCS. The methodology employs simulation-based energy modelling that integrates renovation measures and renewable energy systems. The results reveal a mild increase in seasonal cooling energy demand, partly offset by a substantial decrease in heating energy demand and variations in PV production. These insights highlight the need to include additional considerations for renovation planning for PEDs in Sweden and other heating-dominated regions.