Forecasting the Observable Rates of Gravitationally Lensed Supernovae for the PASSAGES Dusty Starbursts
Journal article, 2026
More than 60 years have passed since the first formal suggestion to use strongly lensed supernovae (SNe) to measure the expansion rate of the Universe through time-delay cosmography. Yet, fewer than 10 such objects have ever been discovered. We consider the merits of a targeted strategy focused on lensed hyperluminous infrared galaxies, which are among the most rapidly star-forming galaxies known in the Universe. With star formation rates (SFRs) similar to 200-6000 M circle dot yr-1, the similar to 30 objects in the Planck All-Sky Survey to Analyze Gravitationally-lensed Extreme Starbursts are excellent candidates for a case study, in particular, and have already led to the discovery of the multiply imaged SN H0pe. Considering their lens model-corrected SFRs, we estimate their intrinsic SN rates to be an extraordinary 1.8-65 yr-1 (core-collapse) and 0.2-6.4 yr-1 (Type Ia). Moreover, these massive starbursts typically have star-forming companions which are unaccounted for in this tally. We demonstrate a strong correlation between Einstein radius and typical time delays, with cluster lenses often exceeding several months (and therefore most favorable for high-precision H0 inferences). A multivisit monitoring campaign with a sensitive infrared telescope (namely, JWST) is necessary to mitigate dust attenuation. Nevertheless, a porous interstellar medium and clumpy star formation in these extreme galaxies might produce favorable conditions for detecting SNe as transient point sources. Targeted campaigns of known lensed galaxies to discover new lensed SNe can greatly complement wide-area cadenced surveys. Increasing the sample size helps to realize the potential of SN time-delay cosmography to elucidate the Hubble tension through a single-step measurement, independent of other H0 techniques.
Author
Patrick Stanley Kamieneski
Arizona State University
Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Astronomy and Plasmaphysics
Rogier A. Windhorst
Arizona State University
Brenda L. Frye
University of Arizona
Min S. Yun
University of Massachusetts
Kevin C. Harrington
National Astronomical Observatory of Japan
Atacama Large Millimeter-submillimeter Array (ALMA)
European Southern Observatory Santiago
Simon D. Mork
Arizona State University
Nicholas Foo
Arizona State University
Nikhil Garuda
University of Arizona
Massimo Pascale
University of California
Belen Alcalde Pampliega
Square Kilometre Array, UK
European Southern Observatory Santiago
Timothy Carleton
Arizona State University
Seth H. Cohen
Arizona State University
Carlos Garcia Diaz
University of Massachusetts
Rolf A. Jansen
Arizona State University
Eric F. Jimenez-Andrade
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Anton M. Koekemoer
Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI)
James D. Lowenthal
Smith College
Allison Noble
Arizona State University
Justin D. R. Pierel
Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI)
Amit Vishwas
Cornell University
Q. Daniel Wang
University of Massachusetts
Ilsang Yoon
National Radio Astronomy Observatory
Astrophysical Journal
0004-637X (ISSN) 1538-4357 (eISSN)
Vol. 1000 2 235Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)
Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Cosmology
DOI
10.3847/1538-4357/ae459e