Wildfire risk for species under climate change

Journal article, 2026

Wildfires are emerging as a major driver of biodiversity loss, yet their long-term implications for species under climate change remain poorly quantified. Here we show that future wildfire exposure will substantially increase for 9,592 non-marine species identified as threatened by increased fire frequency and/or intensity. Under shared socioeconomic pathway 2-4.5, global burned area is projected to increase by 9.3%, with 83.9% of wildfire-vulnerable species exposed to higher risk and ~40% of South American species experiencing >50% increases. High-latitude regions exhibit the fastest intensification, with fire season duration more than doubling. Species with small ranges and elevated conservation concern—particularly in South America, Australia and South Asia—dominate the top 1% most affected taxa. In contrast, up to 41.8% of African species experience reduced exposure, revealing marked spatial asymmetry in future risk. Our results demonstrate that climate-driven shifts in wildfire exposure are highly uneven across regions and taxa, underscoring the need for targeted, region-specific conservation strategies.