Detection of ozone recovery in the Arctic from ground-based measurements
Journal article, 2026
Contrary to the Antarctic, where ozone recovery has been observed for about a decade, the detection of positive ozone trends in the Arctic remains challenging due to higher natural variability of ozone in that region.Using a merging of long-term ozone data from Fourier transform infrared spectrometers, ozonesondes, and Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers, we present regional long-term trends (2000-2024) for total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. First, ground-based measurements are cross-compared to two satellite data sets (MEGRIDOP and IASI-CDR). This enables the detection of drifts in ground-based data sets we further exclude from our study. We then use a representativeness study based on CAMS re-analysis data to define regions for which representative trends with reduced uncertainties are obtained by combining data sets from different instruments and stations. Annual and seasonal trends are calculated using a multiple linear regression technique involving a set of proxies that represent physical processes influencing the natural ozone variability.Annual trends indicate increasing total ozone over the Arctic, and are statistically significant over Canada and Reykjavik (+2.1 % per decade) and North-West Europe (Harestua and Lerwick, +0.7 % per decade). Ozone recovery is also observed over Canada in the mid-stratosphere (+2.0 % per decade) and over the North Pole region (Canada and Ny-& Aring;lesund) in the upper stratosphere (+2.1 % per decade to +3.8 % per decade). By analyzing the sensitivity of the ozone trends to the proxies, we observe a slow down of the expected ozone recovery, especially in the lower stratosphere, due to stratospheric cooling (-0.6 % per decade) and to the increase of volume of polar stratospheric clouds (-0.8 % per decade).
Author
Caroline Jonas
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
Corinne Vigouroux
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
Bavo Langerock
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
Robin Bjorklund
University of Antwerp
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
Anne Boynard
SPASCIA
Sorbonne University
Thomas Carlund
SMHI
Martine De Maziere
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
Peter Effertz
University of Colorado
Quentin Errera
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
Matthias M. Frey
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Jose Granville
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
James W. Hannigan
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Arno Keppens
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB)
Nis Jepsen
Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
Rigel Kivi
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Norrie Lyall
Met Office
Mathias Palm
Universität Bremen
Maxime Prignon
Chalmers, Space, Earth and Environment, Geoscience and Remote Sensing
Viktoria F. Sofieva
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Kimberly Strong
University of Toronto
Tove Svendby
Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU)
David Tarasick
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Laura Tholix
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Roeland Van Malderen
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
Yana Virolainen
Saint Petersburg State University - Spsu
Sibylle von Lowis
Icelandic Meteorological Office
Xiaoyi Zhao
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
1680-7316 (ISSN) 1680-7324 (eISSN)
Vol. 26 11 8089-8124Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)
Climate Science
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
DOI
10.5194/acp-26-8089-2026