A convex approach for Markov chain estimation from aggregate data via inverse optimal transport

Journal article, 2026

We address the problem of identifying the dynamical law governing the evolution of a population of indistinguishable particles, when only aggregate distributions at successive times are observed. Assuming a Markovian evolution on a discrete state space, the task reduces to estimating the underlying transition probability matrix from distributional data. We formulate this inverse problem within the framework of entropic optimal transport, as a joint optimization over the transition matrix and the transport plans connecting successive distributions. This formulation results in a convex optimization problem, and we propose an efficient iterative algorithm based on the entropic proximal method. We illustrate the accuracy and convergence of the method in two numerical setups, considering estimation from independent snapshots and estimation from a time series of aggregate observations, respectively.