Containerized Truck Movements in Sweden Payload and Empty Trip Modeling

Journal article, 2026

Container flows account for 12% of truck traffic in Sweden. Unlike other freight, container truck movements mostly involve import or export cargo that begins or ends at ports. However, containerized cargo has different payloads and empty trip patterns. Hence, this paper analyses container truck flows in Sweden (2016–2019) using Trafikanalys data, focusing on empty container movements. Two demand models are presented: one estimates truck payloads to convert cargo weight into truck trips, and the other predicts the likelihood of empty container transport. Empty containers made up 44%–46% of vehicle numbers and 32%–33% of vehicle kilometers in the given period. The results show that payload and empty trips are notably affected by factors such as origin, destination, and industry sector. This paper concludes with the presentation of the model application, final observations, and recommendations for future research. Key suggestions for further investigation include applying these models to estimate empty container traffic and conducting case studies to assess various policy impacts on reducing empty container movements.