Economic analysis of the early market of centralized photovoltaic parks in Sweden
Journal article, 2022

Sweden is one of the countries that experience growing installation volumes of Solar photovoltaic. Traditionally, in Sweden, most of the solar photovoltaic investments and policy incentives have focused on distributed photovoltaic systems. Yet, despite limited policy incentives and pessimistic forecasts, an increasing number of centralized photovoltaic parks have been commissioned and plans for substantial new capacities are communicated. Hence, the current paper investigates why. Detailed information about the underlying costs of six PV parks commissioned in2019 and 2020 in Sweden were obtained by in-depth interviews with stakeholders and were analysed through levelized cost of electricity calculations. We conclude that the unsubsidised levelized cost of electricity ranged from 27.37 to 49.39 €/MWh, with an average of 40.79 €/MWh. This is lower than what are assessed for photovoltaic parks in some recent Swedish electricity system scenario studies. The main reason for the discrepancy is identified to be the assumed interest rates in the system scenario studies and the actual cost of capital experienced in the market. Comparing the levelized cost of electricity values with the market value of solar photovoltaic electricity on the spot market show that four of the six studied parks would be profitable under a merchant business model with the last years spot prices. If the downward price trend continues, Sweden may face an unexpected expansion of photovoltaic parks.

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

Photovoltaics (PV)

Value factor

Merchant PV business Model

Centralized PV

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)

Author

Johan Lindahl

Chalmers, Technology Management and Economics, Innovation and R&D Management, Innovation and R&D Management

David Lingfors

Uppsala University

Åsa Elmqvist

University of Gävle

Ingrid Johansson Mignon

Chalmers, Technology Management and Economics, Innovation and R&D Management

Renewable Energy

0960-1481 (ISSN)

Vol. 185 1192-1208

Innovative business models for a large-scale diffusion of solar PV

Swedish Energy Agency (48527-1), 2020-01-01 -- 2022-12-31.

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Innovation and entrepreneurship

Subject Categories

Energy Engineering

Social Sciences Interdisciplinary

Economics and Business

Areas of Advance

Energy

DOI

10.1016/j.renene.2021.12.081

More information

Latest update

1/11/2022