Modelling large-scale CCS development in Europe linking technoeconomic modelling to transport infrastructure
Paper in proceedings, 2013
This paper a studies the potential lay-out of CCS infrastructure in Europe, by combining techno-economic modelling of Europs's electricity sector with a detailed modelling and analysis of a CO2 transport infrastructure. First, the electricity sector is described using the Chalmers Electricity Investment Model, which, for each EU member state, yields the technology mix including CCS - until the year 2050. The model gives the lowest system cost under a given CO2 emission reduction target. Thus, the model gives the annual flows of CO2 being captured by country and fuel. Secondly, these flows are used as input to InfraCCS, a cost optimization tool for bulk CO2 pipelines. Finally, the results from InfraCCS are applied along with Chalmers databases on power plants and CO2 storage sites to design the development over time of a detailed CO2 transport network across Europe considering the spatial distribution of power plants and storage locations. Two scenarios are studied: with and without onshore aquifer storage. The work shows that the spatial distribution of capture plants over time along with individual reservoir storage capacity and injectivity are key factors determining routing and timing of the pipeline network. The results of this work imply that uncertainties in timing for installation of capture equipment in combination with uncertainties related to accurate data on storage capacity and injectivity on reservoir level risk to seriously limit the build-up of large-scale pan-European CO2 transportation networks. The study gives that transport cost will more than double if aquifer storage is restricted to offshore reservoirs. Thus, it is found that the total investments for the pan-European pipeline system is € 31 billion.when storage in onshore aquifers is allowed and € 72 billion. if aquifer storage is restricted to offshore reservoirs with corresponding specific cost of € 5.1 to € 12.2 CO2 transported.
Energy system modelling