India INDC assessment: Emission gap between pledged target and 2 °C target

Book chapter, 2017

India has pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of GDP by 33-35% in the year 2030 compared to 2005 level in its Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDC). The goal of limiting the global average temperature rise well below 2 °C was reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement adopted under UNFCCC. This chapter assesses three scenarios for India spanning till 2030. First, the reference scenario assumes continuation of the ongoing policies along the conventional path. Second, INDC scenario assumes the successful implementation of INDC decarbonization target. Two-degree (2 °C) scenario assumes an emission constraint aligned with the global of 2 °C stabilization target. The modelling assessment is carried out using a top-down computable general equilibrium AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium) model. The results show that even after full implementation of the INDCs, the emissions would still be 25 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent higher than 2 °C stabilization target over the period 2016-2030. Enhanced actions like penetration of renewable technologies, end-use demand management and improvement in energy efficiency could help to close this emission gap.